Notes
Slide Show
Outline
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Question of the Week
  • Which one is the suicide bomber?
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Answer
  • Sri Lankan suicide bomber “Dhanu,” moments before killing former Indian PM Rajiv Gandhi, herself, and 17 others


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Answer
  • Bomb concealed under her dress, smuggled through security at an election rally


  • Detonated the bomb while bending down to touch Gandhi’s feet
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"It’s working – Israelis are..."
  • It’s working – Israelis are terrified


  • Although this strategy has wrecked their society, Palestinians feel a rising sense of empowerment
    • They feel they finally have a weapon that creates a balance of power with Israel and, in their fantasies at least, can defeat Israel.
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"Desperation and “nothing to..."
  • Desperation and “nothing to live for” compared to “benefits” of conducting a suicide attack
    • Social status and public praise
    • Financial reward to families
    • Rewards of “martyrdom”
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The Threat Is Spreading
  • During the 1980s:


    • Lebanon
    • Kuwait
    • Sri Lanka
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The Threat Is Spreading
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"Vice President Cheney:"
  • Vice President Cheney:  “Inevitable”
  • FBI Director Robert Mueller:  “A real possibility”
  • Terrorist groups such as
    al-Qa’ida could try to mimic Palestinian methods here to cause panic “on the cheap”
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"No real profile"
  • No real profile
    • Most are 18-23, male, and single.  BUT:
    • Can be any race, color, sex
    • Can be older, married people
    • Bombers often alter their appearance to “blend in”


  • Terrorist groups will employ bombers and disguises most likely to defeat security measures…or profiling
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"Suicide bombs can be delivered..."
  • Suicide bombs can be delivered by multiple means, complicating security measures
    • Vehicle bombs:  USMC barracks in Beirut, 1983; Embassy attacks in Africa, 1998
    • Boat bombs:  USS Cole, 2000
    • Individual-borne bombs: the primary method of attack in Israel since 2000
  • Terrorists will choose whichever method is most likely to succeed against a particular target
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"A suicide bomber’s success depends..."
  • A suicide bomber’s success depends on three main elements:
    • Secrecy is essential to plan and conduct the mission
    • Thorough reconnaissance and surveillance is required to choose a target and identify its weakness
    • Extensive rehearsals and “dry runs” are necessary to ensure stealth and speed during the attack


  • Ultimate goal: inflict as many casualties as possible
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"Traditional concepts of security are..."
  • Traditional concepts of security are based on deterring terrorist attacks
    • Assumes the terrorist fears death or capture
    • But, suicide attacks depend on the death of the terrorist
    • The suicide bomber doesn’t care about his/her death, imprisonment or torture at the time of the attack
    • No need for an escape plan, traditionally the most difficult part of a terrorist operation


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"There is no sure method..."
  • There is no sure method of preventing a determined suicide bomber, but…
  • The surveillance / reconnaissance phase is the best time to spot and thwart attack planning
  • Strong and obvious force protection measures are the best way to deter a suicide attack
    • The terrorist group wants to succeed
    • The suicide bomber does not want to die for nothing
    • If a target is too tough, they will choose another
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"Be alert for indicators"
  • Be alert for indicators
    • Surveillance, particularly focusing on access points
    • Dry runs to identify hazards or security checkpoints
    • Purchase of, or illicit access to, facility blueprints
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"Pamphlet distributed to the public"
  • Pamphlet distributed to the public, early Sep 02
  • Lists basic external, behavioral indicators:
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Final Thoughts
  • Military bases are on the “A-List” for targeting by terrorists


  • The terrorist’s main goal is to inflict as many casualties as possible, in hopes of causing panic and demonstrating the targeted government’s “weakness”


  • The absence of a “specific, credible threat” doesn’t mean there is no threat
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Questions?