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Lesson Index: [ Introduction | Lesson Objective | Overview | EBO Defined | Effects Classification | Effects-Based vs Objective-Based | Why EBO? | National Strategic EBO | Combatant Commander EBO | EBO Example—Allied Force | Summary ]
Title: EBO Example—Allied Force
Action: Screen begins with the objective centered at the top labeled “Milosevic Accedes to UN Demands.” Branching down from it are: Air Attacks (Military Effect); Russian Diplomacy (Diplomatic Effect); Kosovar Albanian Attacks (Military Effect); Sanctions, etc. (Economic Effect); Buildup NATO Ground Power (Military-Diplomatic Effect), and NATO Solidarity (Diplomatic Effect). Each of these is pointing back to the objective.
Voice: Operation Allied Force offers an example of effects-based operations. The overall policy goal was to get Milosevic to accede to NATO’s conditions. Various diplomatic, political and economic efforts were at work to achieve this objective. All of them probably contributed to Milosevic ending the war.
Action: Dim all of the effects boxes except Air Attacks and the objective.
Voice: From a military perspective, the primary means of creating effects to achieve the
objective was through air attacks.
What effects could air attacks provide? It was known that Milosevic relied upon a set of key supporters or cronies as part of his power base.
Action: All except the objective is removed. An effect labeled “Cronies Suffer/Influence Milosevic” The first two of the following headers are shown on the left side of the screen:
Voice: It was theorized that these cronies could have significant influence on Milosevic, if the cronies’ political and business interests were attacked. The desired effect was to cause the cronies to suffer and influence Milosevic.
Action: The rest of the headers are shown and various effects are shown as mentioned in the narration. The effects, objectives, and actions are all interwoven. The word “Actions” and all of the actions shown are highlighted.
Voice: To achieve that effect, other supporting effects, like the freedom to attack, were required. By focusing on the cronies, the desirable effect of minimizing adverse collateral damage was supported. As you can see, the interactions of actions and effects gets extremely complicated and this example is just for the air attacks. Sanctions surely had an effect on the cronies also. A complete diagram would be daunting. In addition to the complexity of EBO, there is a lack of research on the assessment of higher-level effects. At the time, the United States had very little means of assessing its effectiveness until Milosevic conceded. Exactly why he conceded is still not known although it is believed that the cronies had a direct influence on Milosevic’s decision.
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